07/29/2009 Market Recap: Bear’s Straws


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Summary:

Could be an up day tomorrow, not sure though.

Bear's hope relies on US$ and Yield.

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Down   Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate Up Overbought  
Short-term Up Neutral  

According to 2.8.3 CBOE Options Index Put/Call Ratio, I made a “green close” guess in After Bell Quick Summary. Now I’ve got the final readings from www.stockcharts.com, which is 1.55, well, maybe not high enough, but it still has a little edge for a green close tomorrow, not sure though.

CPCI

The market looks very resilient in the recent 2 days pullback. According to 7.1.0 Use n vs n Rule to Identify a Trend Change,  2 vs 2, bulls won. So this is a buyable dip, well, theoretically.

NvsN

What about the next then? Lots of Elliot Wave analysts think there still could be one final push up before a bigger pullback kicks in and after that the market would go to a new high much much higher. From chart pattern, however, there’re still 2 possibilities, so let’s wait and see.

1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), this is a Bearish View, could be a Roof pattern in the forming.

SPY30min

1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), this is a Bullish View, could be an Ascending Triangle in the forming.

SPY15min

Anyway, I think most would agree that the rally is near its final stage. Bears now have 2 straws: The US$ which could rise and the yield which could drop. These 2 factors could result in a bigger pullback of the stock market.

3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily), this might be the most important straw for bears. It had a breakout today, rejected by MA20 though. So whether it could finally stand above the MA20 would determine the bears’ destiny. Pay attention to Euro (FXE) and Yen (FXY), they’re all at an important point now. The drop of the FXE and the rise of FXY are not good for the stock market.

UUPDaily

3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield, Bearish Tri Star should be confirmed today so yield could drop further (means a flight to safety) which is not good for the stock market.

TNX

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