SHORT-TERM: NOT SURE ABOUT REBOUND BUT AT LEAST TODAY’S LOW WILL BE REVISITED
Since another down day and another close below BB bottom today, so the statistics mentioned in 06/07 Market Outlook is still valid: the very first rebound after such a strong down momentum would most likely fail, therefore bears at least have one more chance to sell the bounce.
And here’s one more evidence to support the above claim: 6.4.2c Extremely Low TICK MA3 Readings Watch. See chart below, short-term rebound then lower low ahead.
From chart pattern, there’s not even a Bear Flag yet, so it’s very rare for the market to be bottomed today, so again, the very first rebound is a sell.
On the bull side, no need say much about rebound signals, as everyone knows there’re so many of them, just the question is when? The chart below is the most important bottom signal I saw today: 8.1.5 Normalized CPCE. And there’re two other similar charts, click links below to see if interested.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS
See 06/03 Market Outlook for more details.
SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE
See 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.
ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:
- 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) < –9, so bottomed?
- *8.1.5 Normalized CPCE: Too high, so bottomed?
- *6.4.2c Extremely Low TICK MA3 Readings Watch: Too low, so rebound?
ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:
ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:
ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:
- 06/03 Market Outlook: IWM weekly Bearish Engulfing and SPY down 5 consecutive weeks were bearish for the next 3 weeks.
- 06/08 Market Outlook: The very first rebound most likely will fail.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: