08/15/2011 Market Outlook (Could see pullback but the rebound isn’t over yet)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: MORE ON THE UPSIDE

Two conclusions:

  1. Could be red tomorrow.
  2. The rebound isn’t over yet.

I’ve given plenty of reasons to expect a red tomorrow in today’s Trading Signals, may not be convincing enough, so here’s another one: When NYADV MA(5) too high, the next day is red with no exception. The reason I didn’t mention this in today’s Trading Signals is because the chart also argues for more upside ahead (after a small pullback of course).

NYADV

The chart below is another reason to expect more on the upside, as never was a Major Accumulation Day exactly the market top.

HigherHighGuaranteed

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: CONCEPT ONLY, THE WORSE CASE SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000

See 08/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  1. Monday before August expiration, Dow up 11 of last 15.
  2. August expiration day bullish lately, Dow up 7 in a row 2003 – 2009.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term UP 5 of 6 NEUTRAL
  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly DOWN  
IWM & Weekly DOWN  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN  
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly DOWN
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly DOWN 4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): BPENER oversold.
XLF & Weekly DOWN 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Breakdown long term support!
IYR & Weekly DOWN  
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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