THE BOTTOM LINE:

  1. Likely the selling isn’t over. 95% chances the Friday’s low is not the low. 80% chances this bear may have another leg, i.e. the coming rebound would fail, the selling thereafter would make a new low.
  2. The next Monday, SPY has 75% chances to close in green, 90% chances to rebound to $191.70, 70% chances to rebound to $192.07. I’m not saying Monday would rebound right at open though, most likely it’d go down first then rebound.

The above conclusion is drawn from the statistics below. The chart is very large, you may need click twice to see the original size. I know, one single evidence doesn’t mean anything. The actual reason is the down momentum demonstrated on Thursday and Friday was very strong therefore rarely this bear is just one legged. I just cannot say, my experience tells me that there might be another leg down, I’d need a witness to back me up. If you follow my live update for awhile, you’d know that my experience does count.

VIXUp30PercentIn2Days

THE TRADE:

Pay attention to the human analysis session of the Friday’s Trading Signals, IWM is officially in long term down trend now. If you’re not experienced, it’s a signal to close long position or book partial profit. Short and hold for long term is no practical, you’ll need do swing trade to be a bear.

 

THE SHORT-TERM:

Based on the above conclusion, we should be on the solid blue line which means bears have earned a dashed blue arrow coupon.

EvilPlan60min

For the target of the solid blue line, the chart below should be clearer, it’d be Aug low or MA200. Those 2 targets are very obvious, since there’re obvious and not far away, so both bears and bulls would wait for the target therefore before reaching the target, bulls won’t buy, bears won’t cover, as the result, SPY would accelerate to the target. This is the reason why at the beginning of this report, I said Monday most likely would go down first then rebound.

SPYDaily

THE INTERMEDIATE-TERM:

I’m still not sure whether we’re on the dashed blue line or dashed red arrow. I’m more inclined to believe we’re on the dashed blue line because I still don’t see THE lower high. Trading wise, not sure where we are means don’t know whether the bull’s intermediate-term buy dip coupon can be used or not, which is not helping. However, I do know that bulls still have one more chance to buy dip on the weekly chart, see long term session below for more details.

FindingTop

THE LONG TERM:

Since likely dropping below the tinted area is just matter of time, so we might be on the dashed blue line now. For such a tight up price channel, the first time it’s broken, at the very best, it’d be a range, so bulls at least would have one to two times to buy dip, rarely is the very first drop of a strong up price channel is the end of the world. Accordingly, trading wise, still the old way, if trapped now, lay down pretend dead, as I heard bears don’t eat dead people, wait until NYMO extremely oversold before considering buying the 2nd round. The worst case is a few days of bad mood, but the chances of you’re really dead are low. If luckily above the water the next week, since I mentioned at the very beginning of this report that 80% chances this bear may have another leg, so better take the opportunity to reduce the long positions.

EvilPlanWeekly

CHINESE TRANSLATION

 

THE BOTTOM LINE:

  1. 多半还没有跌完。95%的机会周五的low不是the low。80%的机会熊熊还有一腿。就是说反弹后还会有新低。
  2. SPY，周一有75%的机会收绿，90%的机会反弹至$191.70，70%的机会反弹至$192.07。不是说周一开盘就反弹哈，比较大的机率是先跌再反弹。

以上结论是从下面的统计得到的，图很大，要点击两次才能看到原图大小。我知道一个证据并不能说明什么。主要理由其实是周四和周五的下跌很猛，因此很少一腿就结束的，只不过我不能说，凭经验，还有一腿下跌，我总得找个证人什么的。经常看我live update的同学应该对我的经验有信心啦。

VIXUp30PercentIn2Days

THE TRADE:

注意周五的Trading Signals人工分析的部份，IWM正式long term trend down了。对于没有多少经验的，这是close long position or partial profit taking信号，short and hold长期是不太现实的，需要swing trade。

 

THE SHORT-TERM:

根据上面的结论，我们应该在蓝色实线上，熊熊应该挣到了一张蓝色虚线箭头的coupon。

EvilPlan60min

关于蓝色实线的target，下面的图应该更清楚些，八月的low或者MA200。这两个都是大家公认的target，既然是公认，且已经不远了，那么大家都会不约而同的等待那个target，因此在到达target前，不会有多少牛买，也不会有多少熊cover，这样，周一SPY可能会非常快速的跌至target先，然后才可能反弹。

SPYDaily

THE INTERMEDIATE-TERM:

我不清楚我们到底是在蓝色虚线上还是红色虚线箭头上。我倾向于我们还在蓝色虚线上，因为我没有看到THE lower high。操作上，不清楚我们在哪里的后果就是不清楚是否中期牛牛还有一次buy dip的机会，这个分析当然对操作没啥帮助，等于什么也没说。不过，我比较确定牛牛在weekly图上还有一次buy dip的机会，详见下面的long term session。

FindingTop

THE LONG TERM:

跌幅超过高亮区可能没有啥悬念了，因此我们多半是在蓝色虚线上了。这么紧的up price channel，第一次跌破多半最多是整个range，因此牛牛至少还有一到两次buy dip的机会，是世界末日的可能性很小。操作上，还是老一套，假如已经被套，倒地奘死，因为据说熊熊不吃死人，等着NYMO extremely oversold再考虑进第二批，最坏的情况是会有几天情绪低落，但真死的可能性不大。如果运气好下周反弹出水，由于前面提到80%的机会熊熊还有一腿，所以至少应该趁机减仓。

EvilPlanWeekly