Hi All, thanks Cobra,
SPX scans show the number of stocks in a long term uptrend is down from 77% to 76% and is still Bullish. The Medium term uptrend is down from 54% to 49% today and is downgraded from Neutral Bullish to Neutral Bearish. Stocks in a short term are down from 43% to 37% and are Downgraded to Bearish from Neutral Bearish.
Stocks with a positive short term momentum, ie daily standard MACDH are up from 15% to 18% today and are rated as Very Bearish and in the oversold area. The % of stocks with a slow Stochastic 5 day greater than 50 is 67% of the index up from 56% yesterday.
Weekly standard MACDH has fallen from 47% of stocks with a positive reading to 41% and is Neutral bearish – this will not change until Friday COB. Medium/long term ‘slow’ momentum as shown by MACDH (100,50,30) is 36% down from 38% and is bearish.
Stocks with a positive money flow have are down from 48% to 39% of the total 500 and are Downgraded from Neutral Bearish to Bearish. The TMF 21 day money flow chart indicator is down from +5.4% to +1.9% which is neutral bullish – under around 10% and falling is a danger sign. The number of new highs are up from 22 to 29 and New Lows are 6. NH’s are 6% (was 33% on 6th Aug!!) of the SPX (note that to avoid whipsaws I include stocks in this figure that have had a high within the last 5 days). New highs are just starting to rise slowly after collapsing dramatically over the last week while lows are ‘low’ in number and are fairly stable.
New Lows numbers will need to be monitored closely.
On face value scans show this market the Long term trend is still bullish and the medium term and short term are attempting to recover after recent significant weakness. The short term and medium term trend as well as money flow have been downgraded today. We have been oscillating between upgrades and downgrades the last few days. This will resolve itself in due course one way or the other.
Short term momentum is still very bearish and improving slowly. After the rebound (if it continues) what we would like to see is a lower low in the next week or two or three with much higher momentum, ie positive divergence. Stocks with volume greater than its 20 EMA decreased from 19% yesterday to 18% today. Stocks with volume greater than its 50 EMA decreased from 18% yesterday to 13% today I am not sure whether the problems with the NASDAQ last week still impacts this??. So we have very bearish short term momentum (although improving slightly) and a low number of stocks with volume greater than its short term volume average. Looks like a lack of interest by market participants?? Bearish money flow scan results are also a worry. Not sure how far the short term rebound will go. The weekly 34 and 13 EMA moving average oscillators (difference between weekly close and the trend) show quite a large spread between the two as well as a very noticeable negative divergence since week ended 17th May. The momentum indicator Weekly MACDH 34,13,2 has been negative for the last 2 weeks with this week lower than the previous week. Momentum swings lead price changes and that is why we look for divergences. This does not bode well for the medium and longer term market outlook. What the market does from here?? Whatever it does caution is required.
I also note than when the 34 and 13 week oscillators merge close together we often see a good buying opportunity. There are of
course whipsaws but because they are longer term indicators there comparatively not that many whipsaws. Check it out. Should of course be supplemented with appropriate finer entry, exit and stop loss strategies.
Overall, long term still bullish, Medium term trend neutral bearish and short term bearish. Short term momentum is very bearish but on the improve (momentum leads price). Long term weekly momentum is neutral bearish. Money flow is bearish which is a concern. Stocks with volume greater than its 20 day EMA are also low. Weekly 13 and 34 indicators (see above) show potential for medium term and long term downside to come. Wait and see.
Cobra, has my membership changed? as far as I know, Paypal automatically takes it out every month. I am being non membered by the site?
You’re still member. Your id is “Auole”, if you forgot the password, I can reset for you. Send me email to firstname.lastname@example.org
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S&P500 Yearly Breakout 1921 & Break Down Levels 1765
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