Hey, my "brother" keeps lecturing me about how impossible would be that general (INDU) leads the market. And here is his lecture:
DJI usually does not lead real moves; DJI usually leads FALSE moves.
There's an old saying Generals (General Foods; GM; GE; etc) do not lead; they follow. That also goes for the other large cap industrials in the DJI not named "General _ _ _"
Well, I'm a pure chart-ist (is this a real word? I know word "chartist" but it seems irrelevant form my English Chinese Dictionary with chart-ist). So here are my principles:
1. I see everything through the chart, I don't care if it sounds logical or not. So don't tell me, well, the world is going to end so this kind of breakout is a trap.
2. I try my best no to think that this time is different. Everyone knows that there aren't any 100% correct indicators, so many times we tend to think this time is different and therefore use this as an excuse to justify the trade that is against what the indicator says.
3. If an indicator works in the past, until proven wrong, I'll keep using it.
Hmm, I just realize that it sounds like all my principles are actually about: Try not to be smart.
OK, enough lecture. Let's see what makes me think that INDU leads the market. As usual, a chart. And again, it might not work this time, but hey, I'm not a smart guy. Happy long weekend!