SHORT-TERM: BULLS ON OFFENSE BUT BEARS MAY STILL HAVE CHANCES
Short-term direction still depends on which side breaks first, SPX 1148 or 1122. See 09/27 Market Recap for more details. For now bulls are on offense as an Ascending Triangle could be formed. If breakout and up HUGE tomorrow, then bears will have to retreat to the next consolidation area before any potential counterstrikes could be seriously considered.
Of course, bears still have chances, except that according to 6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch, short at today’s close cover before 09/30 close, the odds were 12 out of 13, there’re 2 charts in favor of bears:
CPCI is a little too high, although not extremely high, but still can see some bearish edges on the chart.
A reader asked again about what happened when both VIX and SPX closed in green. Well, see chart below, just a little little little little bearish biased toward tomorrow.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH, BUT NEED SOME IMAGINATION TO FORESEE HOW BULLISH
See 09/27 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: LAST TRADING WEEK OF MONTH WAS GENERALLY BEARISH
See 09/24 Market Recap for more details.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
|QQQQ||LA||4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.|
|EMERGING||UP||4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.|
|CANADA||*UP||TOADV MA(10) too high, pullback?|
|BOND||UP||4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): Morning Doji Star?|
|GOLD||UP||2 black Bar in a row, pullback?|
|GDX||*UP||4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.|
|OIL||*LA||Bearish reversal bar, pullback?|
|ENERGY||*UP||Bearish reversal bar plus Hanging Man?|
|FINANCIALS||*LA||4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
3.4.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily): Bearish reversal bar?
|REITS||*LA||4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging.
3.4.1 Real Estate iShares (IYR Daily): Bearish reversal bar?
|MATERIALS||LA||Bearish reversal bar?|
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no specific buy/sell signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update.
- Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- LA = Lateral Trend.