The bottom line, the short-term trend is not clear. I hold both long and short over the weekend.

I have no idea about the next Monday although my guess is we could see a gap up open due to the sudden sharp drop before the close on SPY while not on SPX, which looks like an over reaction to me.


Seasonality, on the other hand, is bearish for 2 factors:

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac (2010), Monday after Thanksgiving week, Dow down 5 straight 2004 – 2009. The strategy accordingly was buy on Thanksgiving week Tuesday then sell on Friday. Well, it worked anyway, not perfect though.


The other factor is, since August 2009, sell at the 3rd last trading day close of each month and cover at the close of the last trading day, there’re 13 out of 15 winners. The next week seasonality was generally bearish, by the way, if you still remember chart 6.5.2c Week Seasonality Watch.


Enjoy your weekend!