SHORT-TERM: ISEE EQUITIES ONLY INDEX IS STILL WAY TOO HIGH
As I’ve been saying how far the market could go may depend on how crazy the ISEE Equities Only Index readings are. Unfortunately, today’s ISEE Equities Only Index closed above 260 again. The chart below shows all the recent records when the index closed above 260, looks a lot like 04/26 top, doesn’t it? (Also see 8.2.7a Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2006 – 2007 for the past record)
Let’s use another way to measure how extreme the current ISEE Equities Only Index readings are. The chart below highlighted in red are all the cases when ISEE Equities Only Index MA(10) >= 229. Should be clear enough to see what happened thereafter, right?
I have no idea whether the ISEE Equities Only Index would work or not this time, although theoretically, from TA point of view, we should never ever think maybe this time is different. For now the best I can say is, as mentioned in the 12/03 Market Recap, if bear wants a revenge, either this week or has to wait after the new year. From all the evidences I’ve collected so far, we’re likely to see a red day tomorrow plus the fact today is the Magic Day 6, so if, I said if, the bear’s best chance is this week, then today probably is bear’s best day of the week. Well, I mean one of the best days of the week, LOL.
Why is very likely a red day tomorrow?
Seasonality wise, tomorrow is the most likely red day in December.
Then why is today is the bear’s best (opportunity) day of the week?
Also the most recent short-term rebound usually lasted 5 to 7 trading days while we’re on the day 5 rebound, so if this still is a short-term rebound, then the turning point should be around now.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH BUT NEED SEE HOW MARKET BREAKOUT ABOVE SPX 1227
Temporarily maintain a bullish view for the intermediate-term, need see how the market breakout above SPX 1227 though. Right now the biggest problem is ISEE Equities Only Index is way too crazy. See 12/03 Market Recap for more detail.
SEASONALITY: DECEMBER HAS BEEN BULLISH
See 12/03 Market Recap for more detail.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
|NDX Weekly||UP||NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal but oversold now.|
|CHINA||Could be a Bear Flag in the forming.|
|FXE||*ChiOsc is way too high.|
|USO||ChiOsc is a little too high.|
|XLE||06/15 L||ChiOsc is way too high.|
|IYR||Could be a Bear Flag in the forming.|
|IYR Weekly||UP||Home builders are lagging.|
|XLB||12/01 L||ChiOsc is way too high.|
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.