SHORT-TERM: THE NEXT PRICE TARGET IS SPX 1314 AND PIVOT DATE AROUND 02/07, BEAR’S BEST BET IS THE VERY HIGH NYADV READINGS
As mentioned yesterday, if only a big white Marubozo to new high today then bears would have no hopes AGAIN. Even the market starts to drop sharply tomorrow (which odds are low), going through a complete 1-2-3 trend change procedure takes several days at least and during the procedure, the back test of the previous high is almost guaranteed, so at least short-term bulls are safe.
The chart below is my best guess for the next price and time target. About the time target, in addition to all the coincidences given on the chart, the Non Farm Payroll (on 02/04) is more likely a pivot day, so the bear’s best bet might have to be the next week.
The chart below shows the bear’s last hope (as far as I can see). Although on a longer history (see 6.4.1b Extreme NYADV Readings Watch), today’s NYADV readings are nothing, but still purely from what happened recently, bear may have some edges if we see a small bar tomorrow. If however, another big white Marubozo tomorrow, then chances are very high that the intermediate-term target is no way around 1300 anymore. For this case, we’ll talk about tomorrow if indeed a big while Marubozo.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE, WHETHER THE 01/28 HIGHS IS THE WAVE 5 HIGH REMAINS TO BE SEEN
Intermediate-term still in wait and see mode, temporarily bearish biased, see 01/28 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, first day trading in February, Dow and S&P up 7 of last 8, NASDAQ up 6 years in a row.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
|NDX Weekly||UP||BPNDX is way too overbought.|
|EEM||ChiOsc is little too low.|
|TLT||0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Symmetrical Triangle? So bond should keep falling?|
|GLD Weekly||DOWN||STO is way too oversold, led to a rebound the last 2 times.|
|XLF Weekly||UP||Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.|
|XLB Weekly||DOWN||BPMATE is way too overbought.|
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.