SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE ON THE UPSIDE, AT LEAST DON’T EXPECT BIG PULLBACK
Nothing to say today so I’ll skip today’s After Bell Quick Summary. Although on SPY 60 min chart the Bearish Rising Wedge still looks valid, so officially, we have to wait until tomorrow to get the complete story. However, the VIX simply rose too fast those days even the market didn’t pullback much. This means people are cautious and thus bought lots of put to hedge, so as the result, it actually not easy for the market to drop hard from here. The chart below is not very solid proof but it roughly tells my idea: Whenever VIX:VXV ratio >= 9.1, it had only one case recently that there’s a little more pullbacks ahead.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WHETHER THIS IS PRIMARY 3 OF 3 TO GALAXY FAR FAR AWAY WE MAY KNOW THIS WEEK
See 02/04 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY
See 02/11 Market Recap for more details.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
|NDX Weekly||UP||BPNDX is way too overbought. Too far above MA(200).|
|CHINA Weekly||UP||No higher low yet but the rebound is so strong so could be in uptrend now.|
|XIU.TO||02/04 L||TOADV MA(10) is a little too high, all led to a pullback of some kind recently.|
|FXE||Watch for possible 1-2-3 trend change to down from up.|
|USO||ChiOsc is way too low.|
|XLE Weekly||UP||Too far above MA(200).|
|XLF Weekly||UP||Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.|
|XLB Weekly||UP||BPMATE is way too overbought.|
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.