SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE BACK AND FORTH AHEAD
The scenario I mentioned in 05/23 Market Outlook is in the playing as planned – 3 push down, initial rebound then back test the previous low and since it failed again the 2nd time so now the market is trying the opposite direction which is up. Now the problem is the rebound so far is not strong enough (strong but not enough I mean), considering 2 small statistics I’m about to mention below, so my guess is that we could see some back and forth ahead which essentially means it is still too early to say whether the low was in. That said, however, if gap up huge and rise huge tomorrow, then no argue, the mew high will be just a matter of time.
Here is the 2 small statistics I mentioned above:
- 70% chances SPX will close below 05/24 close. I’ve mentioned this in 05/24 Market Outlook.
- 69% chances SPX will close below today’s close. This is because today’s ISEE Equities Only Index is 282 which means we retailers are 2.8 times bullish than bearish. This is way too bullish of course, which according to the chart below, when ISEE Equities Only Index > 270, short at today’s close and cover at very first down day since 2006 (the inception of the ISEE Equities Only Index), you’d have 69% chances.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL
Maintain what I said in 05/06 Market Outlook. Need pay attention to the possibility that wave 5 ends while primary wave 3 sharply down has started. Still just an attention, not even a warning though.
SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE
For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.
ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:
- 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) < –9, so bottomed?
- 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low, so a bottom is close.
ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:
- 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is too far above EMA(34).
- 4.0.7a Collection of Leading Indicators I: Negative divergences become too much and too big.
- 8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Too high, so topped?
ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:
- 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
- 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
- 04/21 Market Recap: QQQ weekly Bullish Engulfing is bullish for the next 6 weeks.
ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:
04/21 Market Recap : SPX will close below 04/20 close soon. 05/06 Market Outlook : Bearish in 2 weeks.
- 05/20 Market Outlook: A little bearish next week, either close in red
or drops below SPX 1318.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: