SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE
Nothing to say today, I have no idea what the market is doing (well, may be it’s because of this uncertainty that scares buyers away?). The chart pattern looks still missing one more push up especially the ChiOsc is a little too low, but the Global ES looks like the 2 legged up has completed, plus it’s selling off in AH, so for now it does look like the call for a lower close mentioned in 07/12 Market Outlook would be fulfilled tomorrow. A little bigger picture, officially, the short-term is in confirmed downtrend but for intermediate-term, Cobra Impulse System still maintains uptrend with no position though. And by the way, the seasonality on Friday is bearish and if indeed this OE week closes eventually in red then more likely we’ll see at least a lower low the next week. All in all, the situation doesn’t look very bull friendly now.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH JULY
SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY BEARISH FRIDAY, BEARISH JULY EXPIRATION WEEK
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:
- Monday before July expiration, Dow up 6 of last 7.
- July expiration day, Dow down 6 of last 10, off 390 points (4.6%) in 2002.
Also see 07/01 Market Outlook for July seasonality chart
ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:
- 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
- 07/01 Market Outlook: Bullish July. Also one more evidence in 07/05 Market Outlook.
- 07/07 Market Outlook: New NYHGH high means SPX higher high ahead.
ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:
07/01 Market Outlook : Market is a little overbought, could see pullback soon. 07/08 Market Outlook : Could see some weakness the next week.
- 07/12 Market Outlook: Lower SPX close ahead.
SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: