SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE
Although the close was ugly today as the last SPY 60 min bar is a bearish looking Shooting Star. However it doesn’t guarantee a red tomorrow, at least for the most recent 2 times, both were up the next day.
That said, you always can ask: Will the 3rd time be the charm? Well, I don’t have the answer (as always). All I can say are:
- According to the statistics about ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index mentioned in 09/13 Market Outlook, there should be 73% chances SPX will close below its yesterday’s close, in another words are, tomorrow should erase all the gains today. My questions though: Do you believe this? I, personally find it very hard to believe, so if you don’t believe either, then chances are it’d work otherwise it won’t work, LOL.
- Thursday were mostly red recently.
- Starting from tomorrow the seasonality becomes not so bull friendly.
The big picture, I’ll maintain the call, that since the rebound becomes weaker and weaker therefore what we have is just a rebound, eventually the Aug 9 lows will be revisited. In the chart below, the only modification I made today was to shift the tinted area a little right so that you can compare the timeframe with B and C, other than that nothing has been changed, so obviously, today’s up was expected therefore I see no reason I should change my call. In order to prove the rebound is stronger this time, bulls must, within the time, measured by the width of the red rectangle, up more than the magnitude, measured by the height of the red rectangle, otherwise, even eventually bulls made C = B, but since bulls spent more times this time to achieve the same goal, therefore still proven weaker than before. Well, again, the same question: Do you believe the market would up that huge tomorrow? I, personally find it very hard to believe. So if you don’t believe either, then chances are it’d work otherwise it won’t work, blah blah blah……
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS
See 08/19 Market Outlook for details.
SEASONALITY: BULLISH FRIDAY
See 09/02 Market Outlook for September seasonality.
SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: