Market not oversold yet, could be more downside ahead.

Could be a rebound at least tomorrow morning.

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Down   Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate Down Neutral  
Short-term Down Neutral  

First of all, thanks for all the wonderful comments, I really appreciate it. And since I’m still a sick man so please forgive me if I didn’t reply to all your wonderful comments…

Bears best achievements today were:

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, Head and Shoulders Top confirmed with the text book target around $81.04.


1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals, Double Top confirmed with the text book target around $32.7.


Personally, I’d watch the support in chart 1.0.1 Institutional Index (Daily). Only when the support is broken then officially an intermediate-term down trend is confirmed.


The question is if the support will hold? 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market, well, if you believe this chart then INDU has already hinted that sooner or later SPX will breakdown the support.


0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights, take a look at the overall signals especially the short-term signals. Because my favorite NYADV and NYMO are still neutral, so the market is not oversold yet. This could also be proved by today’s Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationship readings, where it has 1443 stocks price down on decreased volume which also means that the market is not oversold  yet.


3.0.3 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily), looks like the Head and Shoulders Bottom is confirmed therefore the bond may rise and the stock market may fall.


So to summarize above, intermediate-term, I think very likely more downside ahead.

Very short-term, there could be a rebound at least tomorrow morning:

Short-term model from, oversold.


1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), oversold plus lots of positive divergences.


2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily), the well known VIX ENV10 is overbought now.


3.4.2 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 30 min), RSI oversold plus lots of positive divergences.