I expect a down day Monday because CPCE closed at 0.49. This is way too bullish.


The following chart illustrates what had happened whenever CPCE was less than 0.56 (counting dashed red and blue lines). Well, ignore the today’s reading for now as this is a long time known problem: the correct readings of CPCE and CPCI are only available after 7:40pm ET.


In case someone asks, yes, the firework is still on, it doesn’t matter what the CPCE readings are. Once the setup is triggered it remains on until either one of its close conditions is met.



PS. Q&A about my “confusing” CPC/CPCE rules:

Janet said...

Cobra, which is more reliable CPCE or CPC?

August 7, 2009 6:11 PM
Cobra said...

CPCE is valid only for the next day. CPC firework setup could last for days. So for the next day, CPCE has higher priority. For example today, CPC < 0.8 which means 78% chances a green close Monday, but since CPCE < 0.56, so we should listen to CPCE instead of CPC. Of course, there's no 100% correct indicator. I found these rules, they worked pretty well in the past, but there's no way to know if they work in the future or not. I will simply use them until they're proved to be invalid.