The bottom line, after the SPY got a little reversal bar yesterday, it got a follow-through today with yet another reversal bar (opened high but closed in red). As predicted in the yesterday’s report, yes, oil was strong and dollar was weak, but even so they didn’t save the day. Plus a black bar was formed on QQQQ daily chart (the previous discussions are here). Considering all these factors, I’d be a little cautious here.

I have one trick today: CPCI > 1.55, 10 out of 16 (63%) times a green close the next day. This trick didn’t work well recently – wrong 3 out of 4 time. And among those 3 wrong convictions, the CPCE was all below 0.60, so it could be the factor it didn’t work well. But today, we have CPCE readings far above 0.60, so maybe this time CPCI will work. Let’s see.