*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE
CYCLE ANALYSIS: THE NEXT IMPORTANT DATE IS 05/06
See 04/16 Market Recap for more details. Please don’t read too much into cycle analysis, and I’m also not sure if the market will pullback from 04/20 (+-) to 05/06 (+-). All I know is that the next potential turn date is 05/06 (+-) which could either be a top or a bottom depending on how the market marches to that date.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD
See 04/16 Market Recap for more details.
SHORT-TERM: EXPECT SOME WEAKNESS OR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF CONSOLIDATION AHEAD
Nothing to say today, just hopefully some of you need see the signals in my table everyday, so I assume that I have to post something everyday so that you can see the table. The bottom line, my guess is the rest of the week won’t be very bull friendly.
6.4.3 SPY Reversal Day Watch, this is the main reason to expect some weakness in the short-term. From the chart below we can see that whenever SPY formed a reversal day (open high close in red), there was usually some weakness ahead, at least a few days consolidation. And what makes today very special is that it’s the 3rd reversal day since the Feb rally, so the question is: will the 3rd time be the charm?
The statistics below is from Bespoke, also argues that the rest of the week won’t be very bull friendly.
STOCK SCREENER: For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.
Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.