*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.
SEASONALITY: THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEK IS BULLISH BUT JUNE HAS BEEN THE 2ND WORST MONTH OF THE YEAR OVER THE LAST 20 YEARS
See 05/28 Market Recap for more details.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: MAINTAIN PULLBACK TARGET AROUND 1008 TO 1019, II SURVEY MAY MEAN A HUGE REBOUND AHEAD
Maintain the intermediate-term target around 1008 to 1019 (See 05/21 Market Recap for more details) but since II survey shows too many people are expecting a correction, so if the past II survey pattern repeats again this time, it’s possible that we might see huge rebound, even new high before the real correction kicks in. See 05/28 Market Recap for more details.
WARNING: If you don’t understand the true meaning of overbought/oversold, please skip the session below. Generally, you should try your best not to trade against the trend. Trading purely based on overbought/oversold while against the trend is lethal to the health of your account. Before going further, please make sure you understand how to use the table above.
SHORT-TERM: 2 CONSECUTIVE DOWN DAYS AFTER A MAJOR ACCUMULATION DAY COULD BE A BAD SIGN
Today we witnessed a rare case: 2 consecutive down days after a Major Accumulation Day (NYSE Up Volume to NYSE Down Volume >= 9). Good sign or bad sign? See charts below. The cases are too few, so strictly speaking, it may mean nothing. But if you think the most recent cases weight more, then although there’re more than 50% chances the market will rebound tomorrow, but that’s it, the market will resume dropping after tomorrow.
Of course, if you say that we’re in 2006 cases, then tomorrow the market should rebound huge and the 05/25 low is THE LOW.
Which cases would be? I’d rather see tomorrow instead of now talking you into believing something so that after a few days I could say “told you so”, if I’m lucky enough. Well, generally, I don’t have such kind of luck, so let’s see tomorrow.