SHORT-TERM: THE 1ST DOWN LEG COULD HAVE COMPLETED
As mentioned in today’s intraday comment, RSI positive divergence plus breakout trend line then back test the previous low then strong rebound is a typical reversal pattern, so chances are good that the very 1st down leg has completed. The initial rebound target is Fib 38.2 as above it, the resistance will become tougher and tougher. The chart below also listed another lower possibility that we might have a small lower low tomorrow, so if you bought dip today, beware this little trick.
Two additional stuff for your attention:
Since the March 2009 rally, all pullbacks began with 3 consecutive down days, so another evidence, if a rebound tomorrow, there could be a 2nd leg down thereafter.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: PULLBACK SINCE 02/22 COULD LAST 4 WEEKS ON AVERAGE, THE 02/18 HIGH WILL BE REVISITED THEREAFTER
See 02/23 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT WEEK
See 02/18 Market Recap for more details.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
|QQQQ||01/28 S||Testing MA(50).|
|CHINA Weekly||UP||No higher low yet but the rebound is so strong so could be in uptrend now.|
|XIU.TO Weekly||UP||Too far above MA(200), %B too high.|
|TLT||Could be a channel breakout, trend may about to change.|
|USO||Clear breakout on WTIC chart.|
|XLE Weekly||UP||Too far above MA(200).|
|XLF||10/15 L||Testing MA(50).|
|XLB Weekly||UP||BPMATE is way too overbought.|
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.