SHORT-TERM: BEARS ARE NOT OVER YET
Although a good day for bulls but not strong enough as according to the n vs n rule mentioned yesterday, 6 vs 6, bulls already lost. Unless up really huge tomorrow otherwise by definition this still is a sellable bounce and accordingly the 03/16 low will be revisited eventually.
Trading wise, in short-term, I’d buy the very first dip as according to the law of inertia, after a strong push up like we saw today, the very first pullback would mostly fail while the bear’s best bet is three push up to form a Double Top before a meaningful pullback could be possible.
In addition, I see two warnings today, may not mean much so info only.
VIX dropped 30%+ in 4 trading days which had only happened 4 times since year 2000. The pullbacks thereafter within 5 days were all big.
As mentioned in today’s intraday comment, OEX put call ratio is way too high which is not a good sign because historically OEX option traders are mostly correct.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH IN 3 TO 6 MONTHS
SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT WEEK
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:
- Week after Triple Witching, Dow down 15 of last 23, but rallied 4.9% in 2000, 3.1% in 2007 and 6.8% in 2009.
- March historically weak later in the month.
For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
|IWM & Weekly||UP|
|SSEC & Weekly||UP|
|EEM & Weekly||DOWN|
|XIU & Weekly||UP||ChiOsc is way too high.|
|TLT & Weekly||UP|
|FXE & Weekly||UP|
|GLD & Weekly||UP|
|GDX & Weekly||03/23 L|
|USO & Weekly||UP|
|XLE & Weekly||UP|
|XLF & Weekly||DOWN|
|IYR & Weekly||UP|
|XLB & Weekly||DOWN|
|DBA & Weekly||DOWN|
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.