SHORT-TERM: A LITTLE LITTLE BEARISH BIASED
A little higher chances that the pullback isn’t over yet. The main argument is, the law of inertia, so the very first rebound after a strong push down like we had in the past couple of days usually would fail. The chart below shows a possible Descending Triangle breakdown then kiss breakdown point goodbye pattern and in addition the Bear Flag looks obvious to me on the QQQ chart. Both are arguing for more pullbacks ahead.
Also I have a small back test here, which is not solid but it seems reasonable to say a little little bearish biased as from the back test result, the next 1 to 2 days are mostly unpleasant but up good a week later. So the conclusion is we may pretty close to a tradable bottom but not yet.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL
Maintain what I said in 05/06 Market Outlook. Need pay attention to the possibility that wave 5 ends while primary wave 3 sharply down has started. Still just an attention, not even a warning though.
SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY, BEARISH FRIDAY
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:
- Monday before May expiration, Dow up 19 of last 22, average gain 0.6%.
- May expiration day, Dow down 12 of last 20, average loss 0.2%.
For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.
ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:
- 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
- 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
- 04/21 Market Recap: QQQ weekly Bullish Engulfing is bullish for the next 6 weeks.
ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:
- 04/21 Market Recap: SPX will close below 04/20 close soon.
05/05 Market Outlook : No –1,000 TICK on almost 1% down day, so 05/05 low will be taken soon.
- 05/06 Market Outlook: Bearish in 2 weeks.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: