SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE REBOUND BUT CHANCES ARE HIGH MORE SELLING THEREAFTER
Not sure if the market will keep bouncing tomorrow, however a little little little little (insert 100 little here) more certain is the selling is not over yet. The chart below explains why: 2 Major Distribution Days within 5 trading days, seems only 2 exceptions (2/13 = 15%) it’s exactly the bottom, the rest cases were more selling ahead. Although it also means 9 out of 13 (69%) chances a green day tomorrow.
The chart below is why I’m not sure if more rebound tomorrow, although the above statistics says 69% chances. The chart pattern looks like a Bear Flag, especially RSP is leading down. So in order to fulfill the 69% chances green tomorrow and the Bear Flag, my guess is maybe some weakness in the morning then rebound to close green?
Tomorrow’s show is the AAPL ER in AH. I believe nobody believes AAPL ER would be bad but I’d like to remind you that AAPL post ER was more like a firework – shot high then fell to the ground where it started. See chart below, there’s only one exception since the 2009 bull market. This chart, by the way, also implies that the broad market may rebound then sell off thereafter.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH JULY
SEASONALITY: BEARISH NEXT WEEK
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after July expiration, Dow down 7 of last 12, 2007 –4.2%, 2008 –4.3%, but up 4.0% in 2009.
Also see 07/01 Market Outlook for July seasonality chart
ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:
- 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
- 07/01 Market Outlook: Bullish July. Also one more evidence in 07/05 Market Outlook.
- 07/07 Market Outlook: New NYHGH high means SPX higher high ahead.
ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:
SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: