SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE
Although huge up today but I didn’t see enough evidences to make a very bullish statement, need wait for a few days. I’m now a short-term bull, but still hold short position. I’ll add into the winning side in the following days.
The biggest question mark today is SPY up 1.6%+ but it’s not a Major Accumulation Day which means the breadth is not strong enough. SPY up 1.6% and NYSE Down Volume : NYSE Up Volume < 6, buy at today’s close sell 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 days later for the last 2,000 trading days, from the test results below we can see, it’s hard to call bull in the following week. Besides, seems no straight up when such kind of huge up weaker breadth day happens, see red bars below, all choppy ahead. So purely from today’s action, I cannot make a very bullish statement yet.
Another reason I want to wait for a few days is AAPL. I mentioned yesterday, that a typical AAPL post ER action was firework, shot high then fell back. In addition, I see another problem today, MACD is way too high which also argues that AAPL eventually will fall back to the ground. AAPL weights 12.23% in Nasdaq, so if indeed AAPL’s falling, I don’t expect QQQ to perform good.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH JULY
SEASONALITY: BEARISH NEXT WEEK
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after July expiration, Dow down 7 of last 12, 2007 –4.2%, 2008 –4.3%, but up 4.0% in 2009.
Also see 07/01 Market Outlook for July seasonality chart
ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:
- 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
- 07/01 Market Outlook: Bullish July. Also one more evidence in 07/05 Market Outlook.
- 07/07 Market Outlook: New NYHGH high means SPX higher high ahead.
ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:
- 07/18 Market Outlook: 2 Major Distribution Days within 5 days means rebound then more selling thereafter.
SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: