SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE PULLBACKS

Two cents:

  1. Before the Nov 1st lows being decisively broken, officially trend is still up. I don’t consider today’s tiny little lower low as a valid breakdown, so bears, no champagne just yet.
  2. Chances are today’s low is not the low, so basically, I believe the Nov 1st lows will be broken eventually.

The chart below explained why the Nov 1st lows must be decisively broken before an official intermediate-term downtrend is possible (pay attention to this “possible”).

  • Besides to meet all the conditions required by the 1-2-3 Trend Change, $120 must be taken too, otherwise it still could be an ABC wave down or Bull Flag on daily chart.
  • If indeed the Nov 1st lows broken, then we’d have a Double Top with text book target around $115 and 73% chances to meet such a target. I think the target might have some credit because the Symmetrical Triangle text book target shown on SPX daily chart below points to 1160ish, which is close enough to $115.

SPYEvilPlan
SPXDaily

Now let’s talk about why I think the low wasn’t in yet.

  • Today is a Major Distribution Day, implying a strong down momentum, so 73% chances we’d see a lower low tomorrow.

LLGuaranteed

  • Non-Stop model issued a sell signal today. Click on Non-Stop, you’d see the back test shows that there’re only 2 out of 27 (7.4%) chances that today’s low was the low. While there’re 73% chances, SPX would drop at least 10 more calendar days before a bottom could possibly be in. Those who follow the Non-Stop model, may need close long and take short tomorrow. You can always choose to wait for a few more days to avoid whipsaws though.

NonStop

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WEEKS RALLY, WILL NEED REASSESS SPX 1,000 DOWNSIDE TARGET

For why we could see multiple weeks rally, please see 10/14 Market Outlook for details.

For why SPX downside target at 1,000, please see 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details. I’m not sure about this call anymore, will need more evidences to reassess.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 *SELL 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in *SELL mode.
Short-term *DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.

 

 

Chinese Transcript

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE PULLBACKS

两点说明:

  1. 在11月1号的lows decisively broken之前,officially trend is still up。我不认为今天刺破那一点点算是跌破了,所以现在还不是熊熊开香槟的时候。
  2. 应该还没有跌完,所以基本上我认为应该会跌破11月1号的lows。

下面的图解释了为什么说11月1号的lows要decisively broken,才可能算(注意这个“可能”)officially downtrend。

  • 基本上,除了要符合1-2-3 Trend Change以外,最好要跌破$120,否则还是能解释成,ABC wave down or Bull Flag on daily chart。
  • 跌破11月1号的lows,就可能是个Double Top,target $115左右,有73%的机会到达这一目标。我认为这一个目标还是有一定的可信度的,因为再下面的SPX daily图上的Symmetrical Triangle text book target是1160左右,两者比较接近。

SPYEvilPlan
SPXDaily

下面谈谈为什么我认为还没有跌完。

  • 今天是Major Distribution Day,表示下跌的动能很大,所以73%的机会,明天会有lower low。

LLGuaranteed

  • Non-Stop model出卖信号了。点击Non-Stop,可以看到,我有验证,只有2 out of 27 (7.4%)的机会,今天的low是the low,而有73%的机会,大盘至少还会跌10个calendar days左右才到底。跟Non-Stop的同学,明天应该close long并且反手short,当然,你总可以多等几天,以防是whipsaw。

NonStop

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WEEKS RALLY, WILL NEED REASSESS SPX 1,000 DOWNSIDE TARGET

For why we could see multiple weeks rally, please see 10/14 Market Outlook for details.

For why SPX downside target at 1,000, please see 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details. I’m not sure about this call anymore, will need more evidences to reassess.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 3 of 5 *SELL 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in *SELL mode.
Short-term *DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.