SHORT-TERM: REBOUND MAYBE, BUT THE SELLING IS NOT OVER YET

No argue, 1-2-3 Trend Change confirmed, plus Non-Stop model is in sell mode now, which is one of two of my major intermediate-term models, so officially to me the intermediate-term trend is down now.

  1. Maintain the target marked by the tinted area in the chart below.
  2. I’m not sure if we’d see rebound tomorrow, but odds are high there at least will be a lower low ahead, so if without a lower low first the market rebounds right at the open, then chances are it’s a sell opportunity.

SPYEvilPlan

Why isn’t the selling over? Three reasons:

  • 2 Major Distribution Days within 5 days means a strong down pressure, so odds are high that the selling isn’t over yet, although may or may not see a rebound first.

2MDDin5Days

  • The intraday RSI is way too low, which means the car is accelerating downhill, and because of the law of inertia, unlike we Martians, you Earth people simply cannot reverse the car uphill all of sudden without decelerating first. Such a decelerating process represented by RSI is positive divergence (as RSI measures momentum, not price. Let’s say, momentum equals to acceleration, while price equals to speed. Speed can only be slowed when the acceleration is zero first, which means RSI must be weakened first before the price can be reversed. It’s simple physics you Earth people learn at high school, while we Martians are born to know, yeah...). So far I don’t see such a divergence, so chances are the selling isn’t over yet.

RSIPDNeeded

  • Today is a Major Distribution Day, so 71% chances there’ll be a lower low first tomorrow. The chart was wrong 3 times in a row, given it’s 71% successful rate, I won’t hope it would fail again tomorrow.

LLGuaranteed

VIX black bar is the most obvious reason I saw for a rebound tomorrow. It’s not a very solid evidence so that’s why I said I’m not sure (may or may not). The reason I mention here is to let you know, yes, I see the chart. I admit the pullback this time is a little abnormal because VIX lags. Usually VIX should lead, so there’re some chances that the pullback is a huge bear trap. By the way, take a look at 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market if interested, so far INDU isn’t leading down too. I’m not saying I don’t believe the trend is down which I do, I just put a little and a little piece of puzzle together, and hopefully, gradually, and eventually, these puzzles will be solid enough for me to call a bottom. This is how my report usually works.

VIX

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT MULTIPLE WEEKS SELLING AHEAD, TARGETING JUNE 2010 LOWS AROUND SPX 1010ISH

See 11/18 Market Outlook for more details.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 4 of 5 SELL 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.

 

 

Chinese Transcript

SHORT-TERM: REBOUND MAYBE, BUT THE SELLING IS NOT OVER YET

没说的,1-2-3 Trend Change确认了今天,加上两个intermediate-term model之一的Non-Stop model已经是sell信号了,所以对我来说,算是中期正式为下降趋势了。

  1. 维持下图中的target。
  2. 我不确定明天是否反弹,反正至少还有个lower low,所以明天如果没有lower low就直接反弹的话,这个反弹是sell的机会。

SPYEvilPlan

为什么说还没有跌完?三个理由。

  • 五天里有两个Major Distribution Days,这个下跌动能够大的,所以可能有也可能没有反弹,但是总之几率比较大的是还没有跌完。

2MDDin5Days

  • 今天盘中RSI太低了,这是说车再向下加速行驶,因此在地球上是不可能不经过减速就突然向上的。这个减速的过程反映在RSI上,就是positive divergence。目前我们并没有看到这样的divergence,所以应该还没有跌完。

RSIPDNeeded

  • 今天是Major Distribution Day,因此有71%的机会明天会有lower low先。这个图已经连错3次了,明天总该对一次吧?毕竟,71%的几率放在那呢。

LLGuaranteed

VIX黑棒棒是明天可能有反弹的理由,不是很充分,所以我说不确定明天是否会有反弹。这里提一下,表示我看到了。最近的下跌很奇怪,VIX不怎么配合,这个有待观察,因为VIX leads,所以不能排除是假摔的可能。顺便说1.2.0 INDU Leads Market,有空也可以自己看看,INDU也没有leads down。注意,我不是说不相信trend is down,开头刚说了trend is down,这里怎么会马上就打自己嘴巴呢?我只是一点一点的搜集反面证据,直到有一天这些证据变的足够使我喊底为止。我的报告一般就是这么一点点拼凑出来的,大家了解一下啦。

VIX

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT MULTIPLE WEEKS SELLING AHEAD, TARGETING JUNE 2010 LOWS AROUND SPX 1010ISH

See 11/18 Market Outlook for more details.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 4 of 5 SELL 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.