SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE SELLING AHEAD

First of all, members please check if you can login and read inside the Member Only Test Page. Via this test page, I’ve solved lots of cases where people paid but not registered or forgot the password, and since today the requests for the customer services are greatly reduced so I think “the target” of this test page is almost met, therefore starting from the next week, I’d gradually lock in my daily reports (which means you have to login to read). Meanwhile those who’d still like to be a member but haven’t done so, please hurry up. You can click HERE to join us.

I’m not sure up or down tomorrow because according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, December Quadruple Witching Expiration SPX up 20 of 28, so should be very bullish. But the chart still looks like a continuation pattern to me, especially QQQ, could be a Descending Triangle in the forming.

SPYEvilPlan

A little bit longer time frame than tomorrow, I still believe the selling isn’t over yet for 3 reasons:

  • Although you can argue that because of Option Expiration, so the VIX chart is screwed up. But still you cannot deny, for 2 hollow red bars (open low close higher), chances are high the bottom (of VIX) is around, which by no means is a bullish sign for SPX.

VIXDaily

  • The bearish crossover is clear on Non-Stop model today, so those who follow the model, tomorrow should close long and open short (I don’t actually expect someone does follow the model because apparently the model needs a lot of fine tuning but it can be a backbone of your own system). If you click the Non-Stop link, you should see the Non-Stop sell signal had only 2 out 17 (12%) chances of being issued at exactly the market bottom while 73% chances it meant on average 10 more calendar day drops before a bottom of some kind could be in.

NonStop

  • And don’t forget the SPY 7 consecutive hourly red bar pattern I mentioned yesterday, most likely, rebound then sell off, at least to revisit yesterday’s low.  So the rebound today was typical, if not weaker than the previous few times.

SPY7HourlyRedBars

One thing I’d like to explain a little is, I believe some would mention the UUP chart to me. Because the black bar plus hollow red bar implies heavily a pending reversal (down), which, in turn, means a rebound of SPX. I saw the chart and I did hesitate a little bit on whether I should make at least a short-term bullish call. However, the FXE (Euro) chart below doesn’t look like bottomed, so at the current stage it’s still hard to say whether the coming reversal of UUP equals to the pullback of the USDEUO, because after all Euro is only 57.6% part of the UUP. We all know the recent pullback was mostly due to the Euro, so if Euro is not bottomed, even indeed UUP drops, it might not translate into an up SPX.

UUPDaily

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT MULTIPLE WEEKS SELLING AHEAD, TARGETING JUNE 2010 LOWS AROUND SPX 1010ISH

See 11/18 Market Outlook for more details.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 4 of 5 SELL 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in *SELL mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.

 

 

Chinese Translation

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE SELLING AHEAD

首先,会员请注意检查自己login以后是否能看Member Only Test Page里的内容。这两天通过这个测试页,我已经解决了大量付费但却没有注册或者不知道自己login密码的情况,今天明显的要求customer services的少了,因此这个测试页的目的基本达到了。从下周起我会开始逐步锁定我每天的报告(就是说慢慢的所有的报告就只能login才能看了),因此也请还没有入会的同学抓紧时间。加入请按这里

不确定明天是涨是跌,因为根据Stock Trader’s Almanac, December Quadruple Witching Expiration SPX up 20 of 28,应该很牛的。但从图形看,还是个continuation的pattern,特别是QQQ,Descending Triangle的意味很重。

SPYEvilPlan

稍微比明天长一点点的time frame,我还是认为没有跌完。理由有三:

  • 虽然你可以争论说因为Option Expiration,所以最近VIX的图形不准,但是不可否认,连着两根低开高走的空心红棒棒看起来VIX bottom的可能性很大。这个意味着SPX还有的跌。

VIXDaily

  • Non-Stop model今天的bearish crossover很明确了,所以明天应该close long同时open short (I don’t actually expect someone does follow the model because apparently the model needs a lot of fine tuning but it can be a backbone of your own system)。如果点击Non-Stop这个链接的话,可以看到Non-Stop的卖信号只有2 out 17 (12%)的几率出在exactly bottom,而有73%的机会,SPX还要跌10个calendar day,所以这个卖信号多半意味着还有的跌。

NonStop

  • 不要忘了,昨天提到的SPY 7 consecutive hourly red bar的pattern,反弹后是要跌下来的,不是明天就是下周了,今天的走法,so far跟过去没有什么两样。

SPY7HourlyRedBars

最后说明一下,可能会有人提到UUP,黑棒棒加空心红棒棒因此反转向下的可能性很大,这应该意味着SPX会有大反弹。我起初也犹豫是否要做出短期bullish的判断,不过最下面的FXE(欧元)暂时看不出来筑底的迹象,所以这个UUP下跌可能并不意味着米金对欧元的下跌,因为毕竟欧元只占UUP成分的57.6%,大家知道,最近的下跌就是因为欧元,所以如果欧元没有筑底的迹象,既使UUP下跌,可能也不一定意味着SPX到底了。

UUPDaily

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT MULTIPLE WEEKS SELLING AHEAD, TARGETING JUNE 2010 LOWS AROUND SPX 1010ISH

See 11/18 Market Outlook for more details.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS:
TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate 4 of 5 SELL 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in *SELL mode.
Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL
* = New update.