THE BOTTOM LINE:

  1. A pullback might be due.
  2. Potential trading setup is to buy NR7 breakout.

 

The sharp pullback before close can not be trusted, and if this is still the past, I wouldn’t be surprised to see SPY gap up above today’s high tomorrow morning. However, chart pattern wise, a pullback should be due. Two reasons:

  • Could be a 3 Push Up (red arrows), so 2 legged pullback might be due. Target at least the EMA(20) blue curve.

EvilPlan60min

  • Two reversal like bars on DAX daily chart so a pullback might be due. In addition, don’t forget that DAX now is too high above its MA(200) – if in this world only one indicator still works then it must be the price cannot deviate too far from its moving averages. A pullback on DAX at least would make SPY gap down tomorrow morning.

DAXDaily

DAXTooHighAboveMA200

Trading wise, 3 options:

  • It’s NR7 today, so break above today’s high tomorrow is buy, stop loss below today’s low, mini target 1x stop loss size (tinted area). It’s not H1 long because I don’t read the previous 2 days up as big enough to be qualified as bull spike, however it’d be a surprise to break above today’s high tomorrow, so I’ll say the setup has 51% chances of being profitable. Again, generally, the successful rate of a setup ranges from 40% to 60%, so don’t waste time to wait for a 80% chances setup which is very rare if not non-exist.
  • Break the blue line below is short. I’ve been blah blah about this setup for awhile so no more blah blah here, please check the annotation in the chart below for more details. The setup is very unlikely triggered tomorrow, so it’s just a good to know for now.

TradingH1

  • Short QQQ 4th touch breakdown still is valid. The setup is very unlikely triggered tomorrow, so it’s just a good to know for now.

QQQDaily


CHINESE TRANSLATION

 

THE BOTTOM LINE:

  1. 可能要有回调了。
  2. 可能的操作是buy NR7 breakout。

 

今天收盘前的突然下跌不可信,要在过去,明天早上大高开在今天的high以上,我都不会觉得奇怪。不过,从图形的角度看,是应该要回调了。两个理由:

  • SPY 60 min是3 Push Up(红色箭头),所以可能意味着两腿的回调。目标至少是EMA(20),蓝色曲线。

EvilPlan60min

  • DAX连着两个反转棒,应该要回调一下了。另外,不要忘了,DAX目前已经离MA(200)过远了。如果这个世界仅剩下一个indicator还工作的话,那就是股价不能无限制的远离均线。DAX回调至少会导致SPY明天低开。

DAXDaily

DAXTooHighAboveMA200

操作,有三个选项:

  • 今天是个NR7,因此明天high过今天的high是买,stop loss在今天的low以下,mini target 1x stop loss size(高亮区)。这个不是H1 long,因为我不认为两天的反弹强到可以称之为bull spike的程度,不过明天如果能high过今天的high,是surprise,因此我认为这个buy NR7 breakout有51%的机会。注意,一般setup的机会都是在40%到60%之间,不要指望会有啥80%的setup。
  • 下破底下的蓝线是short,这个我一直在说,就不解释了,自己看图上的注释吧。这个setup明天就触发的可能性几乎没有,所以属于知道一下就好。

TradingH1

  • Short QQQ 4th touch breakdown继续有效。这个setup明天就触发的可能性几乎没有,所以属于知道一下就好。

QQQDaily