No idea up or down tomorrow. A few sell short at close today HOLD until test condition invalid cases shown below, none are good setup, so I don’t see bear’s edges despite seemingly the market is overbought.

  • SPY up 5 days in a row, short at close today, HOLD until the very first day SPY closes down, you have 67% chances to make money with profit factor 1.7 which is not perfect.

3

  • Both SPY and VIX up 2 days in a row, short SPY at close today, HOLD until the very first day SPY and VIX move in different direction, you have 61% chances to make money with profit factor 1.6 which is not perfect.

2

  • SPY RSI(2) above 98 for 1 day, short SPY at close today, HOLD until the very first day RSI(2) below 98 (i.e. SPY closes down), you have 74% chances to make money with profit factor 1.4 which is not good.

4

Routine statistics about SPY up 5 days in a row. This is about tomorrow, not HOLD until.

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