*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
SEASONALITY: APRIL IS THE BEST MONTH FOR THE DOW
CYCLE ANALYSIS: CYCLE TOP AROUND 04/01, COULD PULLBACK TO AROUND 04/12
See 04/01 Market Recap, originally I thought the market could be topped around 04/01 then pullback to around 04/12. I’ll give another day or two for this cycle to work out but looks like it could be wrong AGAIN.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD
Nothing new, according to the II Survey, too many people expected a correction, so the stock market should rise to a new high first before actually pulling back. Basically, my guess is that we’ll repeat the year 2004 roller coaster pattern. See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.
SHORT-TERM: MIXED SIGNALS, NEED SEE TOMORROW
The pullback today doesn’t mean anything yet especially as mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, the Block Buy Ratio is very high, plus the phantom bar (it’s actually not an error, most likely it means the real trade happened at that price level between big guys) shown on chart 1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min) pointing to a new high, so there’s a chance we may see a new high tomorrow.
On the other hand, 2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily), a black reversal bar was formed on an important support so VIX may rebound further which is good for bears (well, I wonder if still any bears alive?). The bottom line, I still believe we’ll see a little bigger pullback than that of today but I’m not sure if it’s already started. We’ll see.
4.1.3 Volatility Index (Weekly), the weekly chart shows clearly how important the current support is.
Two additional little little little bit bearish signs:
2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume, a little bit too high which means too much beta chasing around therefore is too bullish. Again, add into the table above. Let’s see how many signs I could accumulate in the table above before the market actually responds.
STOCK SCREENER: For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.
Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.