*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
SEASONALITY: THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK IS GENERALL BULLISH
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac:
- 04/15 income tax deadline, Dow down only 5 times since 1981.
- April expiration day, Dow up 11 of last 13.
CYCLE ANALYSIS: CYCLE TOP COULD BE AROUND 04/11 TO 04/15
See 04/08 Market Recap for more details.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD
Nothing new, according to the II Survey, too many people expected a correction, so the stock market should rise to a new high first before actually pulling back. Basically, my guess is that we’ll repeat the year 2004 roller coaster pattern. See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.
SHORT-TERM: A STRONG EARNINGS OFF-SEASON USUALLY MEANS A WEAKER EARNINGS SEASON
See 04/09 Market Recap, the statistics about the Earnings Season plus the cycle analysis and plus too many bearish extremes accumulated in the table above, so my guess is that we’ll see typical sell on news in the coming earnings season.
I bet everyone knows what I’m going to talk about tonight, yes, lots lots lots lots of bearish extremes, as shown on all the newly added stars in the table above. But I still think it’s worth to take a look at the charts I posted today because after a few days we might realize that either they’re nothing (comparing with the more extremes perhaps we’ll see later) or we’ve already witnessed a history today. Well, who knows and perhaps who cares?
6.1.0 Extreme CPCE Readings Watch, I believe every newsletters will mention this tonight – a record low CPCE readings which means never ever so much call buying and so less put buying.
0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch, because CPCE is way too low so now a top signal is triggered on this chart, see dashed red lines.
The most interesting thing today is the Nasdaq Intraday Cumulative Tick (courtesy of sentimentrader) is extremely extremely high.
Take a look at the chart below then you’ll know why the above Nasdaq Intraday Cumulative Tick was so high today – there’re virtually no minus ticks today. That really really is bullish.
All the charts below are not available in my public chart list, so I post them here to let you know the current status. For other charts not posted, please click the links in the table above to see them.
STOCK SCREENER: For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.
Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.