Daily Commentaries

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This site mainly provides analysis for S&P 500 index. Rarely an individual stock is mentioned. It’s the original technical analysis, no news, no fundamentals and no Elliott Wave.

This site is not small, the Alexa rank is below 50K and the monthly absolutely unique IP visits are round 50K too, hardly could you find another single person TA site matching it, so there must be a reason for it to be popular. [Read the Rest]

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02/22/2012 Portfolio Update

DGP buy order filled.

TMV stopped out flat (AGAIN) but the system will try to short bond again tomorrow. Set TMV buy stop at $75.80, stop loss around $70.48, about 90 shares. [Read the Rest]

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02/22/2012 Market Outlook (3 Push Down ...

SHORT-TERM:

The key point to watch tomorrow is today’s low.

  1. A decisive breakout below then it’s Head and Shoulders Top.
  2. Rebound at open or a little lower below (today’s low) then rebound, it’s 3 Push Down, the low was in, targeting yesterday’s high, at least.
  3. [Read the Rest]

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02/22/2012 Trading Signals

THE SHORT-TERM MODEL BELIEVES THE TREND IS UP, HOLDING LONG POSITION OVERNIGHT

The bottom line, bears may make a lower low (lower than today’s low) tomorrow but overall I didn’t see any urgency in selling yet, so guess bulls are OK. [Read the Rest]

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02/21/2012 Portfolio Update

First of all, I’m still working on the trading system, it’s more difficult than I thought as I’m trying to minimize the optimization which the only purpose is to make the statistics read good but does not help at all for the trading because whatever I optimized is for the past which might not work at all in the future. [Read the Rest]

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02/21/2012 Market Outlook (Oil Breakout)

Two cents:

  1. Generally, today’s high will be revisited and chances are we’ll see a higher high on this revisit.
  2. Oil breakout decisively on the upside today. I don’t think it’s a good news.
  3. [Read the Rest]

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02/21/2012 Trading Signals

THE SHORT-TERM MODEL BELIEVES THE TREND IS UP, HOLDING LONG POSITION OVERNIGHT

The bottom line, still no lower low in the SPY intraday chart so bear or no bear, we’ll have to see tomorrow. [Read the Rest]

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02/17/2012 Portfolio Update

FXE buy order filled. It’s a gap up so open range was used to confirm the buy. The price was filled at close.

TMV buy order filled. It’s a gap up so again open range was used. [Read the Rest]

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02/17/2012 Market Outlook (SPX 2.5%+ Pu...

Three cents:

  1. In SPY 15 min chart, could be a small Double Top in the forming. I’m not sure and it’s not important anyway, because even it is a Double Top, because the pattern is too small, so hardly can it be a meaningful top.
  2. [Read the Rest]

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02/17/2012 Sentiment Poll

Guys again, poll time, let’s see how many bears are still kicking. Please cast your ballot here. Again, don’t be shy, nobody knows you voted for, even I cannot see how you voted. [Read the Rest]

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Poll
02/17/2012 Trading Signals

THE SHORT-TERM MODEL BELIEVES THE TREND IS UP, HOLDING BOTH LONG AND SHORT (TRAPPED) OVERNIGHT

The bottom line, the seasonality is bearish for the next week (I’ll update the seasonality info in Trader’s Calendar on the main page later), but I guess nobody would believe this anyway. [Read the Rest]

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02/16/2012 Portfolio Update

TMF buy order not filled and no longer valid. The system will try to short bond tomorrow though, set TMV buy stop at $75.18, stop loss around $69.78, about 90 shares. [Read the Rest]

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02/16/2012 Market Outlook (6+ Consecuti...

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE PULLBACK TOMORROW

The rally today 99.9999% negated the short-term top call I made yesterday. There’s one last hope for bears though as I see possible 3 Push Up pattern in the forming. [Read the Rest]

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