Santa Rally, First Five Days and January Barometer

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The following contents were copied from HERE.


Yes, Virginia it is true. When the S&P 500 shows a gain for our 7-trading-day Santa Claus Rally(2013 STA page 112) and the First Five Days of January (our “Early Warning System” page 14) full year gains have been the norm and pretty hefty.

Since 1950 the S&P 500 has been positive for these two early year indicators in 37 of the 63 years. In 27 of those years our full month January Barometer (page 16) has also been positive. Only two of those 27 years were losers: 1966 and 2011 by a hair. Of the ten years year when SCR and FFD were up and the JB was down, seven were up and only three were down.

Four of the down years (1966, 1973, 1990 and 2002) were affected by war and 2011 was marred by the debt and fiscal problems in the U.S. and Europe. The 27 years that all three indicators were positive averaged 17.4% while the 10 years with only the first to indicators positive averaged 2.9%. All 37 years had average gains of 13.5% with only 5 losses.


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