Archive For "2008"
Two problems today:
1. Intra-day chart has overbought readings, so market might open lower or pullback in the morning tomorrow.
...Not much to say today, light volume, no direction. Tomorrow, the market might open lower or pullback in the morning. Noticed that recently the market tends to open high, sell off most of the day and pump up before the close, so if the market opens high again I suspect if it will sell off again, otherwise it seems too easy for bears. [Read the Rest]
...Very thin volume Friday, so the Friday’s market action may mean nothing. However the fact that the market has been up for 2 days in a row but still couldn’t recover the previous 1 day drop, may mean that bears have the up hand. [Read the Rest]
...Nothing to say, just want to show you an interesting chart. Courtesy of http://www.stocktiming.com/index.htm.
The char shows that for the first time since May, the institution buy exceeds the institution sell. [Read the Rest]
...Thank you, my dear readers, Merry Christmas!
...Well, no Santa Rally this year, I was wrong. (For statistics about Santa Rally, check here: http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2008/12/twas-3-nights-before-christmas.html) Still down 5 days in a row, no lower low, chart 8.1.1 Buyable Pullback Rule still applies. [Read the Rest]
...During the past seven days there are five days when the market went down but there is still no low low, so the bounce still alive, and 8.1.1 Buyable Pullback Rule is still valid. TA is a matter of probability, and I validated all signals that I present in the report and they worked in the past, which is by no means guaranteed to work 100% accurate in the time being. If the signals are wrong, I will cut loss when SPX closes below 850. On the following chart, you may study if the rule in 8.1.1 is still valid. Because all short-term signals are neutral, I have no idea whether the market will go up or down. I guess the probability of going further down is low, because it’s rare to see five consecutive down days even in this year. Again, it’s a matter of probability and I would like to avoid saying "this time might be different". [Read the Rest]
...Although SPX went up a bit on Friday, SPY dropped down. On the chart, three down days didn’t take off the rally on Tuesday, so the dip is a buy according to 8.1.1 Buyable Pullback Rule. Suppose anything unexpected happens, the cut loss is below Dec 12th low at about 850. And the last hope of bulls is below the Dec 1st low at about 815. There is no concrete sign to indicate whether the market goes up or down on Monday, and my guess is the probability of 4 down days is pretty low since there are only two cases of three down days in a row since Oct 10th, and INDU and NYA have been down for three days. Furthermore, the next two weeks are shorter than normal, so will be the volume, if the big moneys want to distribute they won’t get a good price, so the probability of big selling off is very low. [Read the Rest]
...Today it’s the first time the market went down for two days in a row in December. However according to 8.1.1 Buyable Pullback Rule, this dip was a buy because two down days failed to take off the rally on Tuesday, which means bears are weaker. On SPX daily chart, surprisingly there is only one time the market down for three days since Oct 10th, this means the probability of market down tomorrow is relatively small. On the intraday chart of SPY, both RSI and STO are very close to oversold, therefore even if the market doesn’t bounce back up tomorrow morning, it could do so during the day. However the breadth is a bit overbought or close to overbought, so it’s prudent to lock the profit should the market rallies substantially. [Read the Rest]
...Today is a consolidation day, and the direction is undecided. There is no technical indicator to predict whether the market will go up or down tomorrow. I guess the correction could continue in the morning but finally the market would close in green. The reason is that there has been no two consecutive down days since December. In term of operation, because the short-term breadth signals are a bit overbought or nearly overbought, it’s better to lock the profit should the market rally substantially. [Read the Rest]
...Well, I just saw another proof of a possible pullback tomorrow. Courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com.
Pay attention to SPX Climactic Volume Indicator (CVI), maybe the right side "Last 21 days" is clearer. [Read the Rest]
...Are bulls happy today? Well, technically, not out of the woods yet, as still no higher high today and intermediate-term still could be a Bearish Rising Wedge in the forming. [Read the Rest]
...No much to talk about today. Tomorrow is a Fed day, so no idea what will happen, probably big swings again after 2:15pm. [Read the Rest]
...This week bears almost attacked for four days but couldn’t take off the gain of previous two days, so bulls won. In the week it is bulls’ turn to prove themselves. On the chart there are a few patterns against bulls, although these are not destructive but bulls have to break out before disregarding these patterns. Therefore it is key whether the market could rally substantially in the next week. On Monday, since the TICK is a bit extreme the market could pull back during the trading hours if the market doesn’t open at low. [Read the Rest]
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