10/14/2010 Market Recap: Today’s low may not be the low


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 3 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up but I hold no long position overnight.
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
10/10-10/11 10/07 : 10/08 10/11 Next pivot date: 10/05 – 10/11
BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242.
09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end.
10/05 Market Recap: 16 more trading days upswing? See 10/07 Market Recap, I have doubt now.
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: mini SPX target 1173.
BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 19 unfilled gaps, the max was 20.
10/08 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish.
10/08 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report.
6.3.1b Major Accumulation Day Watch: 2 consecutive down days after MAD was a bad sign. Failed!
6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch: Bearish Reversal Day, pullback? Failed!
10/08 Market Recap: Up off-season usually means down earning season.
10/08 Market Recap: Institutions are selling into strength.
6.1.9a Extreme ISEE Index Readings Watch: SPX will close below 1165 within 2 days? Failed!
6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Record low.
0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCI too high, topped?
6.2.2a VIX Trading Signals (BB): Short setup triggered on 10/13.
10/13 Market Recap: % SPX stocks above BB(50,1) is too high.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24.
ST Model 09/24 L Breakeven

SHORT-TERM: TODAY’S LOW IS NOT THE LOW

The rebound before the close as well as GOOG ER in AH may feel like the pullback was over. However, most likely today’s low is not the low, so either SPX will rebound to higher high before pullback which looks more likely the case now, or it may continue to pullback tomorrow, after all, from the SPY daily chart, Shooting Star plus Hanging Man could mean a reversal.

SPYShortTerm 

Why I think today’s low is not the low? Although in the most bullish case, it may take 2 to 3 weeks before visiting today’s low.

Percent of SPX stocks 1 std dev above MA(50) still is too high, see highlighted in red, although higher high was guaranteed thereafter but also today’s low was guaranteed to be revisited.

SPXStocks1StdDevAboveMA50 

Institutional Selling Action from Stocktiming. It looks more and more like the April case as institutions selling keeps increasing despite the market keeps having higher high, so bulls still need to be careful.

InstitutionalSellingAction 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED

Maintain the intermediate-term bearish view. Below are summaries of all the arguments I’ve been blah blah recently:

  1. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, commercial (smart money) holds record high short positions against Nasdaq 100.
  2. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, AAII bull ratio (4-week average) is way too bullish.
  3. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, institution selling keeps increasing.
  4. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, statistically, a strong off-season could mean a weaker earning season.

SEASONALITY: OCTOBER EXPIRATION MONAY WAS BULLISH, EXPIRATION DAY WAS BEARISH

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  1. Monday before October expiration, Dow up 24 of 29.
  2. October expiration day, Dow down 4 straight and 5 of last 6.

For October Seasonality chart please refer to 10/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

TREND COMMENT
QQQQ UP 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.
IWM UP
CHINA   Confirmed breakout, very bullish.
EMERGING UP 4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
CANADA UP TOADV MA(10) too high.
BOND DOWN
EURO UP
GOLD UP
GDX UP 4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.
OIL *LA
ENERGY UP *The 2nd hollow red bar, pullback?
FINANCIALS *DOWN 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
*3.4.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily): Black bar under important resistance, pullback?
REITS UP 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging.
MATERIALS UP

  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no specific buy/sell signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  3. * = New update.
  4. Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  5. LA = Lateral Trend.

© 2013 Cobra's Market View — All Rights Reserved.