02/07/2011 Market Recap: As a bear, do you see hopes via today’s market action?


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
01/26,02/04 02/02 : 02/04 02/13,02/19 Next pivot date: 01/26,02/04
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428.
6.2.2b VIX Trading Signal (BB): Buy setup triggered.
BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 27 unfilled gaps, the max is 27.
12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high.
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close?
12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped?
01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season.
4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought.
4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Price is now too high above MA(200).
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A
ST Model 02/01 L Breakeven On 02/03, stopped out of long position entered on 02/01 flat.
Short-term N/A N/A Trend is UP. I hold no position overnight.
My Thoughts I see no reason to short but am not convinced yet this is the primary 3 of 3 to much much higher.

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE SOME WEAKNESS AHEAD

I’ll skip today’s After Bell Quick Summary because the recap and the summary basically are going to say the same thing – could see some weakness ahead (in short-term of course). If you want to know the demo account result, obviously it’s a winning trade. The biggest problem for the demo account is very poor gain loss ratio (which I’m still working on) not the winning rate, so generally just don’t expect it to have failed trade very often.

The market action today is enough to make me give up any bearish bias as a “bear moral supporter” (mainly because if the market simply goes up everyday then very soon, nobody would be interested in reading my daily blah blah, Crying face). However, surprisingly, the poll (opened just hour ago, so it’s understandable that only 92 people participated) from My Forum shows that actually lots of bears see some hopes (via the market action) today. I won’t say bullish or bearish here as it’s up to you to see “half empty” or “half full”. The poll is in Chinese but I happened to know some English so it should be easy to understand.

2

For short-term, I expect a pullback of some kind for 2 reasons:

  • INDU has been up 6 days in a row, short at today’s close and cover at the very first down day since 1999, you have 73% chances to win something.

1

  • SPY up 3 days in a row but the volume down 2 days in a row (so called price volume negative divergence), bears may have some edges in 6 trading days.

3

P.S. In case you want to ask, no, there’s no edges when both VIX and SPX close in green on the same day.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WHETHER THIS IS PRIMARY 3 OF 3 TO GALAXY FAR FAR AWAY WE MAY KNOW WITHIN 2 WEEKS

See 02/04 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT WEEK FOR NASDAQ, FEBRUARY SEASONALITY IS GENERALLY NOT BULLISH

See 02/04 Market Recap for more details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 01/28 S
NDX Weekly UP BPNDX is way too overbought.
IWM
IWM Weekly DOWN
CHINA
CHINA Weekly DOWN
EEM
EEM Weekly DOWN
XIU.TO 02/04 L *TOADV MA(10) is a little too high, all led to a pullback of some kind recently.
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT
TLT Weekly DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly UP
GLD
GLD Weekly DOWN STO is way too oversold, led to a rebound the last 2 times.
GDX 02/03 L
GDX Weekly DOWN
USO
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 01/25 S
XLE Weekly UP Too far above MA(200).
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR
IYR Weekly UP
XLB 02/01 L
XLB Weekly DOWN BPMATE is way too overbought.
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
  6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
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