06/07/2011 Market Outlook (At least today’s low will be revisited)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: NOT SURE ABOUT REBOUND BUT AT LEAST TODAY’S LOW WILL BE REVISITED

From the statistics mentioned in today’s Trading Signals, a rebound of some kind seems imminent. But by read carefully the chart of all the past cases, my conclusion is, such a rebound most likely is another chance to sell. The theory behind is simple, down 5 consecutive days or closed below BB bottom for 3 days in a row is a sign of strong down momentum, so the very first rebound usually should fail. 

The chart below are all the past cases since year 2000 when SPX closed below BB bottom for 3 or more consecutive days where multiple consecutive dashed lines means more than 3 days closed below BB bottom. With no exception, either a small rebound tomorrow then down again to at least test today’s low, or the worse, simply closes below BB bottom for a few more days.

BB3BB2
BB1BB0

The chart below shows all the past cases since year 2000 when SPX down 5 or more consecutive days. Granted, some of the cases are very bullish for the short-term if huge rebound tomorrow, but still with no exception that eventually today’s low would be revisited.

D4D3
D2D1
D0

So again, the conclusion is at least bears have one more chance to sell the bounce even if the low was in today.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS

See 06/03 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

See 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

  • N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND COMMENT
SPY & Weekly DOWN Clear breakdown, target March lows as well as MA(200).
QQQ & Weekly DOWN  
IWM & Weekly DOWN Head and Shoulders Top breakdown, target $74.57.
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly DOWN  
GLD & Weekly UP  
GDX & Weekly DOWN  
USO & Weekly DOWN
XLE & Weekly DOWN  
XLF & Weekly DOWN  
IYR & Weekly UP  
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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