The follow Q&A is real, hopefully it clears things out.


The Question:

I'm new to the site over the last three months and didn't know until very recently that you don't utilize the market outlook and trading signals you post each night. I now realize you trade much shorter-term than that. By posting each night your outlook, it probably gives people a false sense of security that the market has a high probability of following the evidence. Said differently, that the evidence has a high probability of being correct. Clearly, it hasn't done that as of late, as it continues to rise in the face of negative evidence.

I'm not trying to complain here, but was taken back when I read that you don't follow the evidence you put out. I was hoping to enhance my program with some of your evidence, but it doesn't appear that you have much faith in anything other than your short-term model. I think this is very important to emphasize to those that pull up your blog each night.


The Answer:

  1. I do listen to my evidences, just if they're against the trend, I'd require extremely extreme, because nowadays market tends to go extremely extreme, so any evidences that are against the trend, I'm very very cautious but it doesn't mean I never do counter-trend trade based on my evidences.
  2. I have to have a certain system or rules to follow, I cannot simply jump from evidences and do occasional trade, so I hope you understand this, but it doesn't mean I don't trust my evidences.
  3. I have a few system to follow, each on different time frame because different system on different time frame perform differently on different type of market. One preforms better than other in high volatility market, the other maybe better in trend market. We just never know what kind of market we're in right now, so I need a few different system. And how all those systems were built? If not without all the utilizing the evidences all those years, how do I know which one I can use and which can not?
  4. The purpose of the report and most people like is I'm neutral and honest, so yes, when I see evidences I don't want to believe, I have to post them, and this is the major differences between trade and market report. Maybe you're expecting a strong biased report, well, if so, that's not my goal. I want to be neutral. Maybe my way of report is incorrect, but from the past experiences, I know no matter how hard I try, I cannot make everyone happy, so now I'm OK with who are OK with me. Sorry if this sounds offensive, I just want to say, yes, sometimes or maybe more often than not, I have to say what I don't want to say, that's the way for a neutral report and I think I've been making this very clear as I said this again and again.

So to summarize above, I blindly follow my system, yes. If my evidences against my system, I'd be careful and lock profits because my system never tells when to take profit. If my evidences go extremely extreme, I'd take counter trend trade as hedge but one thing is for sure, before trend change is confirmed, I'd still hold my with trend trade. So again, it's not fair that you said I don't trust my evidences.