07/05/2008 Market Recap (Has the market bottomed?)

Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:

0.0.5 Market Bottomed? I see no bottom signals.

0.0.6 Can market bottom without VIX spike?
I heard lots of saying that this time is different as people are well prepared so the market can be bottomed without VIX spikes. Really? People were well prepared in year 2000 bear market, right? Well, VIX still spiked and so did ATR, CPC and NATV.

0.0.3 INDU leads the Market
So far this chart worked well. SPX followed INDU closing bellow its March low. Now it's the COMPQ's turn. Will COMPQ follow INDU breakdown bellow its March low?

0.0.4 QQQQ Outperforms SPY Good Sign?
Yes, QQQQ will go down and so does COMPQ, as the QQQQ:SPY ratio is till very high.

So to summarise, I think that the market has not bottomed yet.

Short term, I see lots of breadth oversold signals.

2.3.0 NYSE High-Low Index.

2.3.2 NYSE - 10 Day MA of Record High Percent Index, at the point where the market was bottomed in the past.

2.7.0 NYSE % of Stocks Above 50 Day MA (Daily).

So short-term as the market is very oversold, a relief rally is possible.

I think the coming week is critical. There are two possibilities:

1. Continue sell off with no rebounce, VIX in this case will spike, so the market will reach its panic bottom.

2. Bounce to correct the oversold condition. In this case the market will have a long way to go before bottoming. If this is the case, my suggestion is to take the opportunity to add short positions.

My guess is case 2 is more likely. As summer is usually the weakest season of the stock market and also from chart 1.0.2 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Monthly), probably we'll have another down month in July.

  • Yager
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