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0.0.6 Can market bottom without VIX spike?
I heard lots of saying that this time is different as people are well prepared so the market can be bottomed without VIX spikes. Really? People were well prepared in year 2000 bear market, right? Well, VIX still spiked and so did ATR, CPC and NATV.
So to summarise, I think that the market has not bottomed yet.
Short term, I see lots of breadth oversold signals.
So short-term as the market is very oversold, a relief rally is possible.
I think the coming week is critical. There are two possibilities:
1. Continue sell off with no rebounce, VIX in this case will spike, so the market will reach its panic bottom.
2. Bounce to correct the oversold condition. In this case the market will have a long way to go before bottoming. If this is the case, my suggestion is to take the opportunity to add short positions.
My guess is case 2 is more likely. As summer is usually the weakest season of the stock market and also from chart 1.0.2 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Monthly), probably we'll have another down month in July.