09/11/2008 Market Recap: Market breadth and Dominant Price-Volume Relationships

Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:

The stock market soared today but in fact it was very weak which can be seen on the breadth.  Tomorrow it could be bearish.

Mid-term signals:

0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights, the last mid-term signal 2.2.0 NYSE McClellan Chart has given a sell signal, so all mid-term signals are sell.  Here I emphasis again, this is not  a trading advice.  Mid-term signals are usually lagging indicators, and you should do your own due diligence.


The evidences to support the potential short-term pullback:

The Dominant Price-Volume Relationships yesterday was 1383 stocks price up volume down, which is the most bearish one among the price-volume relationships.  The past statistics proves that the market may pull back as late as tomorrow.  However, the dominant price-volume relationship today has not been improved, 947 stocks price up volume down which is less than the threshold of 1000 but doesn't disprove the price-volume relationship yesterday.  This predicts a potential pull back tomorrow.

Now let's look at the breadth today -- the index went up but the number of stocks declined is greater than that advanced, moreover there are more new lows.  The similar situation happened once on July 1st while the stock opened low and went up as well.  Where did the market go afterward?  Check it out yourself on the chart.


1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), 1.2.3 Diamonds (DIA 60 min), they may test the channel resistance.  Note that RSI has reached the resistance also.


1.1.8 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 60 min).  RSI is approaching the resistance too.  Let's see if it can break out tomorrow.


1.1.C TRINQ Trading Setup.  TRINQ is only 0.39 today, which means QQQQ is due for a pullback.  But the success rate of this setup is only 63% so far.

As a summary, although 2.3.0 NYSE High-Low Index is still oversold today which supports a short-term rebound.  However considering other signals I think the probability of getting a pullback is higher.

A few interesting charts for your information:

3.1.0 US Dollar Index (Daily).  US dollar is invincible, maybe it will never get pulled back?


3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily).  GLD is oversold and STO is testing the support.


The rebound of Canadian market has the same weak breadth issue.  Note the red dashed lines on the following chart, the probability of dropping down is quite high after getting weak breadth during the market rising days.


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