09/19/2008 Market Recap: Good Follow-Through


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In this weekend I reorganized the technical indicators in my chart-book and arranged the important ones on chart series numbered with 0.x.x.  If you are too busy to go through all the charts, just check out 0.x.x.

Conclusion:

  1. Over the intermediate term the market should have a decent upside room.
  2. It is unclear if the market goes up or down on Monday.  However we may see a pullback in the near term.

Mid-term signals:

0.0.3 SPY Mid-term Trading Signals.  There are two mid-term buy signals, where one of them BPSPX is confirmed and I will show you.  It is also encouraging that VIX:VXN is still in the buy zone, which means the market should have a decent upside room in the mid-term.

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1.0.6 S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index.  All three major indices have confirmed the buy signal.  On this chart, once all three indices agree with each other, the success rate is very high.

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2.3.3 NYSE Total Volume.  The market bottom pattern is quite convincing.

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3.2.1 Japanese Yen (Weekly).  Black candle and Fib 50, very likely it will pull back, and this is bullish to the stock market.

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1.4.4 TSE McClellan Oscillator.  Canadian market also gives a buy signal.  According to the golden candles, it seems the market has bottomed out.

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Short-term signals:

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals.  The breadth indicators are at relatively extreme range.  So we may see a pullback soon or later.

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2.8.0 CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio.  This is over bullish and isn't sustainable.

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1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), 1.1.4 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 60 min), 1.2.3 Diamonds (DIA 60 min).  Note the resistance.  RSI is close to the resistance, too.

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A few interesting charts:

3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily).  It rallied for three days with a decrease of the volume.  This pattern is quite bearish.

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The following chart is very interesting.  Take a look at two industrial groups which are highest above 50-day moving average and lowest below it, respectively.  Note that the problematic banks and home builders did not go under along with the recent selling-off.  On the contrary, the resource group dropped a lot.  What kind of information does this chart give us?  It is still a open question, and your comments and discussion are appreciated.

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  • AKA_CES
  • Cobra
  • Chris
  • Cobra
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