09/24/2008 Market Recap: No Buy on Rumor then no Sell on News?

Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:

Firstly I would like to tell you that in the past few days it has been really difficult to analyze this news-driven market.  So don't blame me too much if the success rate is low or the report is biased a bit.

From the perspective of the technical analysis, the market has been accumulating the upward momentum for a while.  I believe that, the market will very likely rally once the Bailout Plan is approved.  Furthermore, all indicators on 0.0.1 Market Top/Bottomed Watch have given buy signals, which is really rare to see in the past, and it is not very likely that all signals are wrong.  Moreover, 0.0.3 SPY Mid-term Trading Signals has two valid mid-term buy signals.  Therefore, at the moment I tend to bet on the long side.

A reader raised a question to the judgement of market bottom over the intermediate term.  I think this question makes some sense, so I put it here fore your information.  Personally I think the reliability of those signals that mentioned by the reader is slightly lower than five signals in 0.0.1, so I make my judgement based on chart 0.0.1.  Nevertheless, I could be wrong, and you have do your own due diligence prior to any actions.

You mention about intermediate term buy signal. However, I believe there are also some charts which are still bearish (i.e. charts that say Bottom not in yet). Wonder why the bullish bias is preferred?

For example, T2101 brown curve needs to go down for some time before bottom - is it down yet?

(Cobra: here is the T2101 today)


SPY drop 3 days in a row - not happening yet?
McClellan Oscillator (2.2.1) - No positive divergence yet?
NYSE advancing issue (2.4.2) - normally a series of lows, now only 1st low?
Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume (2.3.4) - now above "high" level again?
With above, wonder if it is possible short or medium term bullish?

Concerning whether or not the bailout plan will be approved, and whether the amount of fund will be kept as 700B finally, here is my two cents but you don't take it too serious.  You may have noticed that the market behaved differently than what it did in the past.  Previously if the congress was arguing an act, the market would rally in advance with the rumor and last (note: the trend really lasts continuously) until the last moment when the act was approved.  However, the market is dropping down without significant bounce.  As a result, if the market was typical buy on rumor, sell on news in the past, will it not sell on news since there is no buy on rumor this time?  Does it mean that the market is betting that the bailout plan will be approved with satisfaction?

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals.  Although SPY went up today, actually both SPX and NYA dropped down.  Because of the increase of advancing issues (relative to the down of NYA), NYAD can be considered as positive divergence.  In addition RHNYA is still oversold.  So the market may likely bounce back in the short term.


1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), 1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min), 1.2.7 Diamonds (DIA 15 min), 1.3.6 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM 15 min).  On the 15-min charts of all major indices, MACD and RSI show positive divergence which means the downward momentum is weakened.  Of course the pattern on the charts also looks like a Descending Triangle.  So I am not sure if the market will break the descending triangle and drop down.  A possible scenario is that, in the morning the market may break downward and then bounce back afterward, finally we may see a small candle on the daily chart and wait for the news on the next day.


1.1.7 TRINQ Trading Setup.  TRINQ is lower than 0.6, so QQQQ may drop down tomorrow according to this setup.  So far the success rate of this setup is 74%.

3 month T-Bill Yield went down again today.  This means the fund is getting nervous which is good and bad, because the major central banks in the world will probably do something should it drop further down.


© 2013 Cobra's Market View — All Rights Reserved.