10/15/2008 Market Recap: Testing Low

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Tomorrow is very critical because the market may test the last Friday low.  Whether the mid-term bullish trend will be killed, in some extent, depends on whether the Friday low still holds tomorrow.  For people who are desperate to cut losses, you may want to wait to know if that low is broken.

Usually the pattern of a market bottom is formed by double bottom: firstly the price goes down with increasing volume to form a new low, then bounce back up, after some time dives down again with decreasing volume (because people who are willing to sell may have sold off, those who are not may keep their holdings opened at previous high price level) to test the previous low, once the kiss back succeeds then a double bottom is formed.  Today's selling off looks a bit like that as the volume decreased, so tomorrow we might have a piece of hope.  On the other hand, the second kiss back usually happens one or two months later, and it rarely happens this quickly.  If the market breaks the Friday low easily and does not reverse before the market close, the bottom may be formed at a low level.  So be cautious.

1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min).  The level that the market will test tomorrow is a consolidation region on last Friday, which has a strength and could hold.  Additionally RSI at the top of the chart has oversold, if the market gaps down at open it will be deeply oversold.  On the chart, the oversold of RSI on the 15-min chart, specially if RSI forms a double bottom, is quite accurate.  Today RSI has formed a double bottom, therefore the market might hold there.  Good luck, bulls!


Some people are probably waiting for the reversal of the brown curves (10-day moving average of the green curve) on T2101 chart of Telechart.  Today it seems so.  T2101 is the absolute value between NYSE advancing and declining, and the ascending green curves means the difference between advancing and declining is increasing, which is a bad news during a down trend because of more and more declining.  Now the green curve starts to go down, which means the difference between advancing and declining is decreasing, so it is a good news and means the selling strength is weakening.


Take a look at the following chart 1.0.5 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days.  Today is another Major Distribution Day, and it is the second highest on the record.


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