11/12/2008 Market Recap: Market Oversold

Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:

The market is oversold, and may bounce back in the short term.  As mentioned about 2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing, it is oversold, and the worst scenario is rebound after three days, then the potential rebound will be as late as Friday.  However you should take notice that oversold doesn't mean it is okay to bottom fish.  Recently the market is at extreme condition and bottom-fishing based on oversold signals which are proven to be effective in the past is highly risky.

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, all major signals are on this chart.  Note the green dashed line, the tick of today's close is extremely negative.  You may check out what the market did in the past after the similar extremely negative tick.


0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights.  Take a look at the overview of all signals.  Many of them are green and look promising. However the mid-term buy signal may not hold should the market sell off further tomorrow.


1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min).  RSI is oversold, and this signal on 60-min chart is quite accurate as you can see what happens at the locations marked by green dashed line.  In addition, the pattern on the chart looks like a standard Measured Move, and today's low has roughly reached the downside target, which means we have a hope.


1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), 1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min), the positive divergence of MACD and RSI looks quite impressive, which could cause a rebound.


1.0.5 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days.  Today is the third Major Distribution Day.  According to the statistics, a big rebound is coming soon.


1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships, 1665 stocks price down volume up, the market is oversold.


1.4.2 S&P/TSX Composite Index (60 min), Canadian market looks oversold on the 60-min chart.  1.4.3 S&P/TSX Composite Index (15 min), Bullish Falling Wedge on the 15-min chart, and MACD and RSI show positive divergence.

3.1.0 US Dollar Index (Daily), US dollar is overbought.

3.2.0 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY Daily), Yen is overbought too.

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