12/02/2008 Market Recap: Inside Day

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Today is an inside day, which means today's candle is completely inside the body of yesterday's candle.  I actually don't like this candle very much, especially the small white candle after a huge red candle (note: this kind of candle is called Harami, which has a strong indication of reversal.  However the second candle is better to be small for accurately predict the coming trend in a typical Harami setup, while today's candle is a bit too big).  Based on the simple strength judgement model, today's rally has not covered yesterday's loss, which means the up strength is weak.  Therefore tomorrow is the key, the market has to rise massively in order to avoid a potential roll over afterward, at least the gap formed on Monday is better to be filled.  Take a look at 0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, a small white candle tomorrow won't work, red candle is no good either, only the big white candle is good.  Also notice that the NYADV and NYMO are very close to overbought, which means bounce still has life even we see a big white candle, but the market could still pull back in the short term.


A not so good news we have today: 1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships, 1343 stocks price up volume down.  This is quite bearish although I think it should not be over analyzed.  The statistics shows that the market could drop down tomorrow or as late as the day after tomorrow.  The reason that the data should not be over analyzed is because 1266 stocks price up volume up, which is the most bullish price-volume relationship.  Maybe two data can cancel each other in some extent.

1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min).  The pattern on 60-min chart looks like a head and shoulders bottom, and the theoretical target is 105.76 which is October high.  This may not mean anything, we can put the chart aside and see how it works out some time later.  In real practice, I found that patterns such as double top, symmetrical triangle, etc, are quite accurate.  However the prerequisite is to break the blue neck line on order to confirm the pattern.


3.1.0 US Dollar Index (Daily).  Let's see one more example where the up strength is weaker than the down strength.  US dollar has bounced back up for three days, but it failed to cover the loss in previous three days, and today it formed a bearish dark could cover, so I think US dollar with drop.  The correction of US dollar favors commodities, while the strong Japanese Yen and declining US dollar are bearish to the stock market.  3.2.0 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY Daily), Yen seems having broken out the symmetrical triangle, although it is a bit overbought it still looks quite strong.



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