12/16/2008 Market Recap: No Breakout Yet

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Are bulls happy today? Well, technically, not out of the woods yet, as still no higher high today and intermediate-term still could be a Bearish Rising Wedge in the forming. Tomorrow, because RSI on SPX 30 min and 15 min char are pretty overbought, plus extreme readings on TICK, so the market may at least have either a morning or an intraday pullback.


0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, the question of Ascending Triangle or Rising Wedge still not resolved. VIX ENV close to oversold and NYMO overbought so if again rise big tomorrow, bulls better take some profits.


1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), RSI overbought and the blue curve of the TICK is a little bit too high, so a pullback is due.


1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), RSI way too overbought and ChiOsc is at the level which generally is not sustainable.



3.2.0 CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY Daily), Yen had a big day today, it's a good news for the stock market as Yen is overbought and therefore due for a pullback. 3.2.4 Japanese Yen and the Market Top/Bottom, if have time, take a look at this chart, it is probably still applicable that RSI of Yen overbought means a market bottom. But, since the interest rate of US$ is almost zero now, I'm not sure if "Carry Trade" should become meaningless and therefore the Yen can no longer be used as a market indicator. We will see.


  • Greenlander
  • Cobra
  • dave
  • Cobra
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