12/23/2008 Market Recap: No Santa Rally

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Well, no Santa Rally this year, I was wrong. (For statistics about Santa Rally, check here: http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2008/12/twas-3-nights-before-christmas.html) Still down 5 days in a row, no lower low, chart 8.1.1 Buyable Pullback Rule still applies. Well, maybe you don't believe me anymore, but I'll stick to my plan until SPX 850 was broken on close basis. Tomorrow we'll have only half trading day and plus a usually very low volume post Christmas Friday, so whatever going to happen might mean nothing. And by the way, one of paid newsletters I subscribe began to short the market today, reason, the Rising Wedge was broken yesterday.


0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights, for overall signals, short-term a little oversold, not very significant though.


 1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), RSI and STO not oversold yet, so this may mean that the market still has rooms to drop. Why SPX 850 ($84.51 on SPY chart) important? Besides it's the first lower low, if broken, a Double Top might be formed with target around $77.


 2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily), ENV 10 still indicates an oversold condition. I still don't know how this going to affect the market.

 2.8.1 CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio, still way too bullish.

 3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily), oversold. Pay attention to the green dashed lines, whenever RSI and STO reach certain oversold level at the same time, USO always had a several days bounce. Hope this time it works again. Recently the market seems to fluctuate along with the price of the oil, so if USO can bounce, maybe it's good for the overall market.


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