01/07/2009 Market Recap: Intermediate-term Top?

Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:

Another topping signal today, chart 2.8.0 CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio, so far it never went wrong since I "invented" this signal. Now we have a few topping signals which could mean that for an intermediate-term, the market could have been topped. I will review all those topping signals in today's report. For me, as always, I'll keep part of my long positions to follow 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals, but it doesn't mean that I don't have any short positions now. For short-term, the market might bounce tomorrow morning, but since market is still overbought (yes, that's right, still overbought), it'll be a sell opportunity if we do have a good bounce or even close high tomorrow.


Let's look at the short-term signals first:

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, Bearish Evening Star (not exactly though), which means possible further pullback, plus NYADV overbought, plus NYMO overbought, plus newly triggered STO sell signal, plus hmm, no more.


SPX Short-Term Volume Osc from www.decisionpoint.com, STVO is too high, it needs several days of selling to reach a normal position. Also pay attention to VTO bellow, the negative divergence make me feel really bad.


1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), looks like the market will bounce at least tomorrow morning.



Now, let's review all the intermediate-term topping signals:

2.8.0 CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio, today's star, every time the green downtrend line was broken, the market topped. By comparing the red circles with the green curve on the background, which represents the COMPQ, you'll know what I mean. This signal, ever since I found it more than a year ago, never went wrong.


2.8.2 SPX:CPCE, supplement of 2.8.0, sell signal triggered today.


2.0.1 Volatility Index (Weekly), look at the STO indicator, at least not much room left for the market to go up, right? 2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily), by the way is bullish today, no good for the overall market.


T2101 from Telechart, doesn't matter what it represents, just look at the brown curve, every time it turns so does the blue curve on the background, which represents the S&P 500.


0.0.1 Market Top/Bottom Watch, last but not the least, our main topping watch chart, at least CPC and NYA50R now ring the bell. Especially for NYA50R, I even denied it as an intermediate-term top signal in yesterday's report, but now, combining with other topping signals, I cannot say that the high readings of NYA50R means merely a short-term overbought anymore.


To summarize: High chances that an intermediate-term top has been formed. The very very last confirmation will be my "equal up down strength" rule, which if in certain trading days, SPX 857 still holds, then the intermediate-term remains still up. I'll report when rule applies, stay tuned.

  • Mike
  • Cobra
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