01/15/2009 Market Recap: Reversal Day


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


Today is a reversal day, but we have to see if tomorrow is a follow-through.  Because of a few puzzles, the market may only bounce in the short term should it takes off from tomorrow, and the trend is still down over the intermediate term.

Four criteria for the reversal day are the following:

  1. New low;
  2. Close > Open;
  3. Close > Yesterday's Close;
  4. Heavy volume.

The reason we may get a follow-through tomorrow:

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, STO buy signal, and RSI is still oversold which looks promising.

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1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min).  It stands above EMA21 for the first time in the past seven days, and MACD gives buy signal too.  So it looks good.

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2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily).  VIX seems turning down which is bullish to the market.

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Why I think the intermediate-term trend is still down:

1.0.5 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days.  We saw a Major Distribution Day yesterday, and it seldom appears in single, which means the market might dive down one more time.

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1.2.6 INDU leads the Market.  INDU has a lower low today ahead of SPX and COMPQ, and the latter two may follow afterward.

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2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing.  NYADV lower low means SPX may make a lower close compare with yesterday's close level.

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