01/22/2009 Market Recap: Inside Day


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There is no so much to talk about today.  Inside bar for two consecutive days on 0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, which means indecision or the momentum accumulation.  Once it breaks out, it will be massive no matter which direction it finally goes to.

7.0.3 NYSE Composite Index Breadth Watch.  Let's see the targets for bulls and bears on the chart respectively.  Rising up -- if it doesn't go beyond the top blue line then the situation will be bearish.  This is because three days' effort cannot even compete with the down on a single day of Tuesday.  Dropping down -- if it doesn't dive below the bottom blue line, bullish.  Why?  two down days fail to take out the rally on Wednesday.  It seems more difficult for bulls to go beyond the top blue line, especially on Friday not so many people are willing to hold their positions over the weekend.  Therefore the best hope of bulls is actually modest down tomorrow.

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1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min).  It seems like a symmetrical triangle.  If we just read this chart, the probability of downside move is bigger.

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0.0.1 Market Top/Bottom Watch.  A very simple criteria to judge the market bottom is fear.  How can it fear?  At least three down days in a row, right?  What the bottom isn't in place without fear?  Because without fear no one will cut with loss, and the big money couldn't get the cheap chips and they will keep trying.  Therefore, even the market goes up tomorrow and beyond the high on 7.0.3, bulls shouldn't be too happy because it is most likely a rebound.  If the market goes down tomorrow, there will be more hope since we get two down days already.

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